Authors: Jasabanta Patro, Pushpendra Singh Rathore
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Abstract
Although Twitter constitutes as one of the primary sources of realtime news with users acting as the sensors updating the content from all across the globe, yet the spread of rumours via Twitter is becoming an increasingly alarming issue and is known to have caused significant damage already. We propose a credibility analysis approach based on the linguistic structure of the tweets. We not only characterize the Twitter events but also predict their perceived credibility of them by a novel deep learning architecture. We use the huge CREDBANK data to conduct our experiments. Some of our exciting findings are that standard LIWC categories like ‘negate’, ‘discrep’, ‘cogmech’, ‘swear’ and the Empath categories
like ‘hate’, ‘poor’, ‘government’, ‘worship’ and ‘swearing-terms’ correlate negatively with the credibility of events, While some of our results resonate with the earlier literature others represent novel insights of the fake and legitimate twitter events. Using the above observations and the current deep learning architecture we predict the credibility of an event (a four-class classification problem in our case) with an accuracy of 0.54 that improves the best-known state-of-the-art (current accuracy 0.43) by ∼ 26%. A fascinating observation is that even by looking at the first few tweets of an event, it is possible to make the prediction almost as accurate as in the case where the entire volume of tweets is observed.
ACM Reference Format: Jasabanta Patro and Pushpendra Singh Rathore. 2020. A Sociolinguistic Route to the Characterization and Detection of the Credibility of Events on Twitter. In Proceedings of the 31st ACM Conference on Hypertext and Social Media (HT ’20), July 13–15, 2020, Virtual Event, USA. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 10 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/3372923.3404795
1 INTRODUCTION
In the current decade, social media platforms have seen a burgeoning growth, allowing easy access to the knowledge base and enabling millions of people to connect with each other[1]. Online sites avail information on a range of topics to their users. Users, on the other hand, use social media for a variety of purposes, which include information sharing, gathering and expression of personal
1No. of users in different social media :https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/ global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/
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thoughts or opinions. For instance, in an emergency, some users generate information by unfolding observations that they have witnessed about or by bringing relevant knowledge from external sources into social media. From this pool of information, other users try to synthesize or derive elaborate interpretations continuously over time.
Even though this process can generate, gather, filter and propagate information quite rapidly, unfortunately, unlike in traditional news media, they don’t have gatekeepers who can control the quality of information flowing across [8]. This makes the social media platforms a vulnerable place, where one can quickly get susceptible to spam content [19], stealth advertising [38, 48], and the propagation of rumor [72] or misinformation [10, 31, 36, 41, 42]. For example, immediately after the 2010 earthquake in Chile, several rumours were posted and re-posted on Twitter in the absence of any official statement, which raised panic, chaos and insecurity among the residents [31]. Recently, the social computing community has started taking increased interest in understanding and mitigating such vulnerabilities. There are works that focus on automatic detection of contradictory information [64], investigating trolling [28] and spread of misinformation [10]. In order to tackle these vulnerabilities, there is a need for an automatic system that can measure the credibility or the “perceived trustworthiness” of different topics that people discuss in social media platforms. Most often these topics are referred to as social media events. These are real-world events reported over social media at specific times, i.e., each event is associated with a time-ordered stream of social media posts.
Many of these studies found that the linguistic features are good indicators of credibility, e.g., expressions of anxiety, uncertainty, etc. are considered as good signals of credibility [8, 56, 71]. While, earlier researchers have mostly focused on specific events that were instances of misinformation, such as the spread of rumors during the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake [27], the 2013 Boston marathon bombings [29], the 2014 Sydney siege event [3] etc., the recent introduction of the CREDBANK data [34] has opened up a new opportunity to study credibility at a macroscopic level. The parsimonious language model [35] defined over this dataset is the current state-of-the-art model to predict the credibility of an event. They found that the language used by millions of people on social media has considerable information about an event’s credibility [35]. Less credible social media events are more questioned and are viewed as suspicious as they lack strong evidences backing them. Post from other users in such scenario have expressions of skepticism like ‘hard to believe’, ‘but’, ‘maybe’ etc. along with anxiety in their words. On the other hand, highly credible events exhibit more positive sentiment expressions such as ‘wow’, ‘so good!!’, etc. and a general agreement among the users which can be observed
through expressions such as ‘I agree’, ‘convincing’ etc. This is since the information is usually backed by strong evidences or are from reliable sources [73].
1.1 Working definition of credibility
In this paper, we consider the definition of credibility given by Mitra et al. [35] for our investigation. They represented the credibility or perceived trustworthiness of an event as the interaction between two dimensions – polarity, which distinguishes among ‘accurate’, ‘inaccurate’ and ‘uncertain’, and degree of certainty which differen tiates among ‘certainly’, ‘probably’ and ‘uncertain’. Thus, the event credibility is represented as a tuple <degree, polarity>, forming a set of tuple sequences – (<certainly accurate>, <probably accurate>, <uncertain>, <probably inaccurate>, <certainly inaccurate>). In others words, the credibility assessment is based on a 5-point Likert-like scale ranging from [−2] indicating ‘certainly inaccurate’ to [+2] indicating ‘certainly accurate’.
1.2 Operationalizing the definition of credibility
We operationalize the above definition on the huge CREDBANK dataset released by Mitra et al. [35]. This dataset has 1377 social media events and their associated tweets. The authors followed an online LDA approach to detect events on a real time basis from 66M tweets. Specifically, they ran the online LDA model iteratively for every set of one million streaming tweets. The LDA takes input as a bag-of-words representation of individual tweets that has passed through the pre-processing steps. The model gives output as a set of latent topics represented as a set of related words which tend to co-occur in similar tweets.
We consider each of the CREDBANK event as the basic unit of our analysis. The quantification of the credibility level of an event is based on the fraction of total number of annotators who rated the event’s reportage as ‘certainly accurate’. Formally,
Eca Pca = (1) Etotal
where Eca is the number of ‘certainly accurate’ ratings for an event E and Etotal is the total number of ratings available for that event. As described in Mitra et al. [35], to have a reasonable comparison it is impractical to treat Pca as a continuous variable and have a category corresponding to every value of Pca . Hence, they divided Pca into four classes that cover a range of values. The name of the classes based on the perceived degree of event accuracy in that class is noted in Table 1. We shall use the exactly same classes all through the paper.
Credibility class Pca range |Events| Perfect credibility (1) 0.9 ≤ Pca ≤ 1.0 421 High credibility (2) 0.8 ≤ Pca ≤ 0.9 433 Moderate credibility (3) 0.6 ≤ Pca ≤ 0.8 414 Low credibility (4) 0.0 ≤ Pca ≤ 0.6 109 Table 1: Credibility classes.
1.3 Contributions and key results
Contributions: Some of the key contributions of this work are,
We perform an in-depth linguistic analysis of Twitter events
present in the CREDBANK dataset.
We observe that the sociolinguistic structure of the tweets
posted in the different credibility classes are considerably different. Therefore, we propose a hierarchical attention network model augmented with sociolinguistic features for the prediction of the credibility level of a social media event. As far as we know, this is the first work where a hierarchical attention network, which is typically used for text classification, has been adapted to predict event credibility (broadly an event classification task).
We build classification models [2] to predict the credibility of
a user based on the linguistic structure of his/her timeline tweets. Key results: Some of the key results of this work are,
Standard LIWC categories like ‘negate’, ‘discrep’, ‘cogmech’,
‘social’, ‘swear’ etc. and the Empath categories like ‘hate’, ‘confusion’, ‘poor’ etc. correlate negatively with the credibil ity level/class of events.
The sociolinguistic properties of the less credible events are
quite different from, the more credible ones. We leverage this information coupled with a standard HAN to achieve a prediction accuracy of 0.54 that improves the best-known state-of-the-art, i.e., the parsimonious language model [35] (current accuracy 0.43) by ∼ 26% and random guess model (accuracy 0.25) by 112%.
We show that only the first few tweets in an event are sufficient to predict the credibility of that event accurately.
2 RELATED WORKS
2.1 Social media: a rising reserve of information and its diffusion
Information diffusion is an interesting characteristic shown by social media; in many cases, information spread over social media before it is formally made public by traditional news agencies [25]. Further, it is much more convenient for the people who have crucial information with them or have eye-witnessed an event, to release their information through a social media post than the traditional options [15, 55]. Owing to this, the research community has shown interest in the automatic gathering of information from user-generated content over social media [30, 74]. This promotes collaborative or citizen journalism, including collaborative verification of information over social media [20, 61]. The use of social media in gathering information during emergencies [22, 46, 68, 69], protests [1, 62] and natural hazards [32, 63] is increasing in order to better coordinate the situation. Social media is also extensively used to gather public opinion on a range of social and political issues [37, 39]. Researchers frequently use social media data to understand public perception of products, issues, elections, public programs and peoples’ liking [2, 53, 58]. Social media has also become an important source to stay aware of ongoing changes in the financial world and stock markets [4]. Many tools have been developed to predict a stock market reaction from tweet sentiments, to mine the opinions that investors post on social media, and to
Credibility class | Pca range | Events | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Perfect credibility (1) |
| 421 |
analyze the effect of social media reactions on brands and products [9, 26].
2.2 Linguistic structure related to event credibility
Several exploratory studies analyze the linguistic aspects of an event’s credibility. In general, the credibility is studied in the form of factual nature of eventualities expressed in the texts [52]. The factual nature includes expression of an event if it has actually occurred, or might have occurred or has not occurred at all. There are several factually annotated corpus introduced in the literature. TimeBank corpus [47] is one of them. It consists of temporal and factual annotation of events compiled from news articles. Another dataset, the MPQA opinion corpus [65] includes annotation regarding the factual degree of events. The expressions have annotations of opinions, beliefs, thoughts or speech events. This also reflects the authors’ subjective or objective perspective. To inspect how lexical meanings and semantic annotations affect the veracity of judgments, Saurı [52] came up with the FactBank dataset which has annotations over a rich set of news wire documents containing event descriptions. Following the footsteps of this rich body of corpus, Mitra and Gilbert [34] came up with the vast CREDBANK data set as a leading resource for research on information credibility over social media content.
2.3 Present work
Our work is an extensive and in-depth sociolinguistic analysis of the CREDBANK dataset [35]. We characterize the credibility of an event based on the linguistic structure of the tweets posted in that event. We use these sociolinguistic features and fuse them with modern deep learning machinery, in particular, hierarchical attention networks, to predict the credibility class of an event.
3 DATASET
As we have already stated, we consider the largest available dataset, i.e., the CREDBANK corpus [34] for our study. This massive dataset was constructed by iteratively tracking millions of public tweets using Twitter’s streaming API[3]. The corpus consists of over 66M tweets covering 1,377 events reported on Twitter between October 2014 and February 2015. The credibility of each event is annotated by Amazon Mechanical Turkers (AMT) which range from ‘certainly inaccurate [−2]’ to ‘certainly accurate [+2]’. To ensure that the annotations obtained are of the same standard as expert level assessments, several controlled trials were carried out before finalizing the best strategy for obtaining high-quality annotations (see Mitra et al. [35] for the details).
4 LINGUISTIC STRUCTURE OF THE EVENTS
For the event data analysis, we investigate various linguistic characteristics associated with the tweets posted across the different events having different credibility class. Note that the 1377 events are classified into only one of the four credibility classes based on the Pca range (unlike the users posting in these events who can belong to multiple classes as discussed earlier).
3Twitter Stream API: https://developer.twitter.com/en/docs/tutorials/ consuming-streaming-data.html
Category | Correlation |
|---|---|
negate | -0.18 |
Category | Correlation |
|---|---|
confusion | -0.18 |
(a) LIWC
(b) Empath
Table 2: Top LIWC and Empath features showing absolute high Spearman’s rank correlation with Pca across events. Each distribution is statistically significant with p < 0.001 as per the two sample t-test.
4.1 Data preprocessing
We pass all tweets through a preprocessing step before further analysis. The preprocessing step includes (i) removal of stop words, (ii) replacement of URLs by token ‘URL’, (iii) replacement of user mentions by ‘@user’ and (iv) removal of # symbol from the front of the hashtags. For the linguistic analysis of the tweets we consider the LIWC [43] tool[4] and the Empath tool [16]. They have been found to be an effective tool to understand topic signals in large-scale text
[17].
4.2 Analysis
We compute the fraction of words in each LIWC/Empath category appear per tweet of an event, and rank the 1377 events based on this fraction. In parallel, we also rank these events based on the credibility (i.e., the Pca values). We then compute the Spearman’s rank correlation [18] between the two rankings. The key results are enumerated below. LIWC results: The LIWC categories showing high absolute Spear- man’s rank correlation with Pca are shown in Table 2 (a). Events that are the least credible feature more words from categories like ‘negate’, ‘cogmech’, ‘swear’ and ‘discrep’. In contrast, events that
are highly credible feature words from categories like ‘health’ etc. The correlation between LIWC features and Pca noted in the table are statistically significant with p < 0.001 for the two sample t-test. The average absolute correlation value for the rest of the categories is 0.036, which is one order of magnitude less than those reported in the table. Empath results: We show the Empath features that show high absolute Spearman’s rank correlation in Table 2 (b). The words from categories like ‘confusion’, ‘hate’, ‘poor’ etc. dominate the tweets corresponding to the least credible class. On the other hand, words from categories like ‘achievement’, ‘competing’ etc. appear more frequently in the tweets corresponding to highly credible events. The correlation between the Empath features and Pca noted in the table are statistically significant with p < 0.001 as per the two sample t-test. The average absolute correlation value for the other categories is 0.005, which is two orders of magnitude lower than those reported in the table. Trend analysis: As a second step, we also report the proportion of certain LIWC/Empath categories in the different credibility classes. There are certain categories like ‘discrep’ and ‘hate’ for which the proportion of words monotonically increases as one moves from the
most credible to the least credible class (see Figure 1: Linguistic features showing increase in proportion of category words with decrease in credibility level of events. The distributions are statistically significant (p < 0.001, two sample t-test).
Figure 1). On the other hand, there are certain categories like ‘health’ and ‘achievement’ for which the fraction of words monotonically decreases as one moves from the most credible to the least credible class (see Figure 2: Linguistic features showing decrease in proportion of category words with decrease in credibility level of events. The distributions are statistically significant (p < 0.001, two sample t-test).
Figure 2). A summary of features that have monotonic increasing and decreasing trends across the classes are noted in Table 3. All the distributions are statistically significant with p < 0.001 as per two sample t-test.
(a) discrep (b) hate
(a) health (b) achievement
4.3 Insights
One of the first insights that the above analysis brings forth is how ‘profanity’, i.e., choice of profane words is perceived in social media. It unfolds that the choice of words can have a massive impact on the ‘personal branding’ of a user or a group of users tweeting in an event corresponding to specific credibility class. We note that messages using profane words – swear terms, hate speech – are usually perceived to be less credible. Our results resonate
with many past studies in this domain. One of such research is the work done by Baseheart and Cox [6], where the authors study the perceptions of police credibility (in the offline world) when using profanity. Their main finding was that irrespective of the gender of the police officer, using profane words scored lower on the safety dimension than officers who refrained. Our analysis portrays an analogous observation in the online world. Research done by Pérez-Rosas et al. [45] and Cunha et al. [13] on the linguistic nature
fake news and legitimate content finds a similar result. They have reported that, while the phony news contents are rich in linguistic characters (LIWC/ Empath categories) like Cogmech, discrep, social, religion and positive emotion etc., the legitimate materials are rich in achievement, competition etc. Ribeiro et al. [49], also report similar results. The detailed survey done by Parikh and Atrey [40] lists other studies that are reporting similar results, where these LIWC categories are found to be a useful tool to detect media-rich fake news.
A second insight comes from the observation of the use of ‘health’ terms in more credible events. Recent studies have shown that doctors/medical practitioners have started perceiving Twitter as a credible outlet for sharing credible information/finding[5]. In Chretien et al. [11] the authors showed that out of all the information shared by doctors as low as 3% are unprofessional. Since the information shared in this category are posted mostly by ‘respectable’ users (i.e., doctors/clinicians), the online perception is likely that these are highly credible.
5 PREDICTION
In this section, we set our objective to predict the credibility of an event. As we have seen in the previous section, the sociolinguistic structure of the tweets posted in events of different credibility level are quite different, we leverage these features extensively in this section to improve upon the overall accuracy of the prediction models proposed by us.
5.1 Predicting the credibility of an event
We experiment with a range of machine learning models starting from simple classifiers based on linguistic features to sophisticated neural architectures that are traditionally used for text classification. Note that we restricted ourselves from trying transformer based architectures as our data size is small i.e. only 1377 number of events, and neural transformers usually need large sample size to perform effectively.
We compare the results of our experiments with the current stateof-the-art parsimonious language model [35]. The Performance measure of all experiments is calculated using stratified five-fold cross-validation. In the subsequent subsections, we describe the baselines used in our experiments, following which we describe the proposed models.
5.1.1 Baselines. Here we describe the current state-of-the-art parsimonious language model. We also describe a set of other text classification neural architectures that we use as baselines. Parsimonious language model: We consider the current state-of- the-art parsimonious language model [35] as our first baseline. Note that we have used the same dataset as is used in this baseline. The authors in this model have viewed the event credibility prediction problem as an ordered logistic regression problem. The regression model takes linguistic features computed over event tweets as input and predicts one of the ordered credibility levels as presented in Table 1 as output. The authors used three types of features – lexiconbased, non-lexicon based and control features; the list of linguistic categories in each type are shown in Table 4. Realizing that the
Trend | Feature type | Feature list |
|---|---|---|
decreasing credibility | LIWC | ‘social’, ‘cogmech’, ‘filler’, ‘hear’, ‘i’, ‘ipron’, ‘negate’, ‘percept’, ‘conj’, ‘present’, ‘pronoun’, ‘relig’, ‘see’, ‘swear’, |
decreasing credibility | Empath | ‘swearing-terms’, ‘hate’, ‘hearing’, ‘poor’, ‘government’, ‘worship’ |
increasing credibility | LIWC | ‘achieve’, ‘bio’, ‘health’, ‘sad’, ‘sports’, ’discrep’ |
increasing credibility | Empath | ‘competing’, ‘fight’, ‘fun’, ’achievement’ |
Table 3: List of linguistic features showing monotonically increasing and decreasing trend with respect to the credibility levels. Each distribution is statistically significant (p < 0.001, two sample t-test).
feature space is ample (over 9000) and the sample size is small (1377 events), the authors used the penalized version of logistic regression which handles multi-collinearity and sparsity. Authors have done extensive experiments to analyze the explanatory power of each feature. First control features are included in the model to understand their explanatory power, after fixing them other features are included subsequently in the model.
The regression technique has a parameter α (where 0 ≤ α ≤ 1) which determines the distribution of weights among the predictive variables. When α = 0, all correlated features are included with coefficient weights shrunk toward each other, while α = 1 includes only one representative feature per correlated cluster with other coefficients set to 0. Authors found that the model performs best at α = 1. Deep pyramid CNN (DPCNN) : We use word-level DPCNN model architecture which was earlier proposed as an efficient text categorization method [23] as a baseline. We use 15 weight layers as it has outperformed previous shallow methods across six benchmark datasets for sentiment classification and topic categorization. We keep other hyperparameters the same as in the best performing model corresponding to the previous study [23]. Character-CNN: We use char-CNN model, which was earlier pro- posed as an efficient text categorization method [70] as another baseline. This method outperformed many traditional and deep neural network model over benchmark datasets. We go for optimal combination of hyperparameters as defined in the original paper.
5.1.2 Proposed models. In this section, we describe our proposed models. As a first step, we wanted to understand whether the sociolinguistic features (LIWC/Empath) analyzed in the previous sections are at all effective for our prediction task. As a following step, we employ a modern deep learning architecture, the Hierarchical Attention Networks (HAN) for the classification of the events. The effectiveness of these models in classifying text documents [67], in predicting the edit quality of Wikipedia edits [51], and numerous other tasks where a hierarchical structure is inherited motivates the choice of the HANs. Classification of events, where every event is a collection of tweets is highly analogous to the hierarchical classification problem and hence the choice. Edit quality prediction task again can be thought of as similar to tweet quality/credibility prediction task and therefore, the choice. We also hybrid the HAN with the sociolinguistic features to harness additional benefits. Classifiers based on linguistic features: In this method, we con- sider all the sociolinguistic features described in Table 4 plus all the LIWC and Empath features. We conduct a range of experiments starting from considering individual words in various linguistic categories as features to linguistic categories themselves as features to the mixture of both the strategies. In all of our experiments, the
feature values are calculated event wise considering the tweets associated with the event. For the experiments where we consider linguistic categories as features, the features are calculated similarly as described in the event data analysis 4.2. However, in the experiments where individual words in the categories are considered as features, we consider the frequency in the event tweets as features values. Hierarchical attention network (HAN) model for event clas- sification: Yang et al. [67] introduced the HAN as a method for document classification. It has outperformed many strong baselines including linear methods [33, 70], SVMs [59], methods based on word-CNN [24], char-CNN [70], LSTM, conv-GRNN [59] and LSTM-GRNN [59]. The overall architecture of HAN is illustrated
Figure 3. In our study, we map the event classification problem as a document classification problem. We project each event as a document and each tweet in an event as a sentence in the document. The elementary construct of documents/events are the same, i.e., words. HAN has four modules (i) word encoder, (ii) word attention, (iii) tweet/sentence encoder and (iv) tweet/sentence attention. The encoder modules of HAN are GRU based sequence encoders [5]. The GRU uses a gating mechanism to track the state of sequences without using separate memory cells. There are two types of gates: the reset gate and the update gate. They together control the way information is updated in each state. The overall architecture of a HAN is illustrated in Figure 3.
For our purpose, we use negative log-likelihood of the correct labels as training loss, i.e.,
Where j is the label of the event k. We conduct all experiments using five-fold cross-validation. We use Glove vectors [44] as our input word embeddings. We keep the size of vectors as 300. We have fine-tuned the other hyperparameters to obtain the best results; the final set of hyperparameters is reported in the next section, where we demonstrate the results. Hierarchical attention network augmented with sociolinguis- tic features (HAN-SL): In this model, we augment the final event vector from HAN with the sociolinguistic features as discussed earlier at the beginning of this section. The architecture of our proposed system is shown in Figure 4: Architecture of the HAN-SL model.
Figure 4. The sociolinguistic features are first computed for each event and passed through a dense layer to get the hidden representation. Let s be the sociolinguistic vector for an event, then
hs = ReLU (Whss + bhs )
Loss = −
�
k
loдpkj
Feature type | Feature name | Lexicon size |
|---|---|---|
Lexicon-bassed | Modality [14, 50, 52] | 30 |
Non-lexicon based | Number of hashtags | Number of hashtags |
Control | Number of original tweets, retweets, replies | Number of original tweets, retweets, replies |
Table 4: List of features used in the parsimonious language model [35].
The dimension size of each newly introduced dense layers is
kept at 50. The hyperparameters are reported in the next section where we discuss our results.
where, hs is the hidden representation of s. The hidden vector hs is then concatenated with the event vector v as obtained from HAN model and passed through another dense layer. Thus,
hf i = [v, hS ]
hf = ReLU (Whf hf i + bhf ) The outcome of final dense layer hf is passed through a softmax layer to get the credibility labels, i.e.,
p = sof tmax(Wchf + bc ) All weights are learned during training. We use Glove vectors
[44] as our input word embeddings; the size of vectors is kept to
5.1.3 Evaluation. The state-of-the-art baseline based on the parsimonious language model [35] introduces two different forms of evaluation – conservative and liberal. On similar lines, we use both of these techniques for the assessment. The methods are briefly described below(as described in Mitra et al. [35]). Note that other forms of measure like NDCG can be used if we recast the problem as a regression task rather than a classification task; however, since this is not possible unless we also overhaul the state-of-the-art baseline framework, we refrained from using these measures. Conservative evaluation: This evaluation strategy ignores the partial ordering present among the credibility classes. The model performance is measured based on whether the predicted credibility class label for an event exactly matches with the correct label. Liberal evaluation: This evaluation strategy rewards a partial credit of 0.5 if misclassification is done by one level and a partial credit of 0.25 if the misclassification is done by two levels. For instance, if the original class-id for an event is 1 as per the ground-truth and the model predicts the class id to be 2, then the contribution to the accuracy for this misclassification is not 0 but 0.5. Similarly, if the original class id for an event is 1 as per the ground-truth and the model predicts the class id to be 3, then the contribution to the accuracy for this misclassification is not 0 but 0.25.
Performance measurement: The calculation of accuracy is based on the confusion matrix where actual and predicted class events are mapped along with rows and columns, respectively. The accuracy is then calculated based on the degree of agreement and disagreement between the actual and predicted class of events.
k �
r =1
Therefore they were chosen[6]. For instance, LR is a well-behaved algorithm that can be trained usually if the features are roughly linear, and the problem is linearly separable. The algorithm is quite robust to noisy training data, and one can avoid overfitting. Feature selection is also possible using L2 or L1 regularization. Naïve Bayes classifiers are usually known to work well for unbalanced classes. K-neighbor algorithm is also known to be very robust to noisy training data and is more effective if the training data is astronomical. Finally, the advantage of RF/Extratree types of algorithms are that they do not expect linear features or even features that interact linearly. Another advantage is that because of how they are constructed (using bagging or boosting) these algorithms handle very well high-dimensional spaces as well as a large number of training examples. As our feature space is quite complex, RF/Extratree types of algorithms, as we shall see below, outperform other classes of algorithms.
In Table 5, we report the Acccon and Acclib values for the different feature combinations. The last entry in this table achieves the best results. We shall use this combination to refer to the ‘sociolinguistic’ features (SL) in the later parts of this paper. Note that the results for this feature combination, significantly outperform the best performing baseline model (PLM). Proposed neural models: Here we present the results obtained from the neural models. In the GRU with no attention model reported in Table 6 we considered the same HAN architecture (Figure 3) however with the attention layer removed from both the word and the tweet levels. As we can observe from Table 6, the HAN-SL model performs best in terms of both Acccon and Acclib . It is also interesting to observe the neural models are only marginally better than the linguistic feature-based models. After fine-tuning the optimal set of hyperparameters, we get for these neural models are noted in Table 7. All results reported are for this choice of hyperparameters. Class wise performance: The class-wise precision (P), recall (R) and F1-scores for the best performing baseline model, the featurebased classifier and the HAN-SL classifier are reported in Table 8. The HAN-SL classifier performs marginally better in terms of macro F1 than the linguistic feature-based model. Both the proposed models by far outperform the baseline model. Early tweets: As an exciting extension of the above experiments, we report the results of the prediction if we consider only the initial tweets were corresponding to an event. Note that this is easily doable since the tweets are ordered in a timeline. The prediction accuracies of the events considering the first 1k, 5k and the full 10k tweets per event are noted in Table 9. The significant observation is that the initial 1k tweets are almost equally informative in credibility prediction as the aggregate data.
6 DISCUSSION
Theoretical underpinnings: It is well-known that modern CMC systems allow users to interact using multiple modes; however, the predominant way still corresponds to textual conversations. Automatic content analysis can help in understanding various facets of human behaviour, which can immensely benefit researchers
6https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-advantages-of-different-classificationalgorithms
Accuracy =
k �
a=1
Xa,r
∗ wa,r (2) n
where xa,r is the number of events from the a[th] actual class predicted as being from r [th] class, n is the total number of events classified, wa,r is the credit for correct/incorrect classification. The credit will be assigned based on the conservative or liberal evaluation strategies as described previously. Apart from the accuracy, we also report the class-wise precision, recall and F1-score for the best performing models for a fair comparison.
5.1.4 Results and discussion. The results of the baseline and the proposed models are presented as follows: Baselines: The conservative (Acccon ) and the liberal (Acclib ) accuracy values for the different models considered as baselines in this study are shown in Table 6. From the table, it is clear that among the baselines, the parsimonious language model (PLM) outperforms all the other techniques. Proposed linguistic feature based models: The conservative (Acccon) and liberal (Acclib ) values for various classifiers over different feature constructions are shown in Table 5. We consider various feature types as follows. LIWC cat: Here individual LIWC categories are considered as fea- tures. Empath cat: Here individual Empath categories are considered as features. LIWC cat + Empath cat: Here LIWC and Empath categories jointly are considered as features. LIWC lex: Here we consider individual words in the LIWC cate- gories as features. Empath lex: Here we consider individual words in the Empath cate- gories as features. LIWC lex + Empath lex: Here we consider individual words in LIWC and Empath categories jointly as features. LIWC cat + Empath cat + OthLing Cat + Non-lexicon + Control: Here we consider all LIWC and Empath categories plus the non-lexicon, control, and other lexicon categories noted in Table 4 as features. LIWC lex + Empath lex + OthLing lex + Non-lexicon + Control: Here we consider all LIWC and Empath category words plus the other lexicon, non-lexicon, control attributes noted in Table 4 as features. LIWC cat + Empath cat + OthLing lex + Non-lexicon + Control: Here we consider all LIWC and Empath categories plus the other lexicon, non-lexicon and control attributes noted in Table 4 as features.
We have also used various types of classifiers for the classification task. In particular, we have used logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), Extratree, K-neighbors and Naïve Bayes. We choose these classifiers for their diversity since they are known to be able to solve a vast range of different types of classification problems. Each of these classifiers represents different schools of thoughts and have their own set of strengths and advantages.
Models | Acc | Acc |
|---|---|---|
PLM | 0.43 | 0.67 |
GRU with no attention | 0.39 | 0.64 |
Parameter/hyperparameter | Value |
|---|---|
Optimizer | rmsprop |
Col1 | Col2 | Conservative | Col4 | Liberal | Col6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | Class | P | M-F1 | P | M-F1 |
PLM | 1 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
Extra tree | 1 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
HAN-SL (10k) | 1 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
Feature form | Classifiers | Acccon | Acclib |
|---|---|---|---|
LIWC Cat | Extratree | 0.46 | 0.70 |
Empath Cat | Extratree | 0.48 | 0.71 |
LIWC Cat + | Extratree | 0.49 | 0.72 |
LIWC lexicon | Extratree | 0.45 | 0.69 |
Empath lex | Extratree | 0.46 | 0.70 |
LIWC lex + | Extratree | 0.46 | 0.70 |
LIWC Cat + | Extratree | 0.49 | 0.71 |
LIWC lex + | Extratree | 0.46 | 0.70 |
LIWC Cat + | Extratree | 0.5 | 0.73 |
Table 5: Accuracy of different classifiers for various feature constructions.
from multiple domains. For instance, a linguist might be typically interested in investigating the correlation between language of the text and the overall commitment of the user. Also, they might be interested to find if the readability of the text is determined by the user’s perception of a topic/event. Likewise, a social scientist might be interested in how the overall credibility of a user can be inferred from the credibility of the individual topics that (s)he predominantly posts. Another point of interest could be how the common language use can help in understanding uncertainty in data. A psychologist might benefit from our study in assessing the user behaviour by observing their dominant credibility classes.
GRU with no attention 0.39 0.64 HAN (10k) 0.52 0.73 HAN-SL (10k) 0.54 0.74 Table 6: Conservative and liberal accuracy values for the baselines and the proposed neural models. The first three rows correspond to the three baselines while the last three rows corresponds to different variants of our model.
Parameter/hyperparameter Value Optimizer rmsprop Loss categoricalcrossentropy Dense layer output 50 Attention layer1 output 100 Attention layer2 output 50 GRU layer output 100 Batch size in fitting 20 Dropout none Learning rate 0.001 ρ (in rmsprop optimizer) 0.9 Table 7: Optimal set of hyperparameters for the HAN and the HAN-SL models obtained through fine-tuning.
Conservative Liberal Model Class P R F1 M-F1 P R F1 M-F1
1 0.57 0.42 0.48 0.75 0.64 0.69
PLM 23 0.380.41 0.390.56 0.380.47 0.36 0.680.66 0.680.76 0.680.71 0.64
4 0.17 0.12 0.14 0.46 0.51 0.48
Extra treeclassifier withSL features 1234 0.570.420.500.63 0.530.460.620.07 0.550.440.550.14 0.42 0.750.710.730.8 0.730.730.780.48 0.740.720.750.6 0.70
1 0.57 0.75 0.65 0.74 0.85 0.79
HAN-SL (10k) 23 0.510.54 0.350.63 0.420.58 0.45 0.750.75 0.680.77 0.710.76 0.70
4 0.5 0.09 0.15 0.75 0.45 0.56 Table 8: Class wise precision (P), recall (R) and F1 score of the best baseline and the proposed models. M-F1: Macro F1.
Model |tweets| Acccon Acclib Extra tree 10k 0.51 0.73 classifier with 5k 0.50 0.73 SL features 1k 0.49 0.72
10k 0.52 0.73
HAN 5k 0.53 0.74
1k 0.52 0.73
10k 0.54 0.74
HAN-SL 5k 0.54 0.74
1k 0.54 0.74 Table 9: Prediction of credibility of events from early tweets.
Our results further show that over the presence of ‘negation’, ‘swear’, ‘confusion’ and ‘hate’ words in an event should arouse
suspicion about the credibility of the event. In similar lines, ‘sports’, ‘play’, ‘achievement’ words seem to be correlated to the credibility
class of the users. The observations constitute the foundation stones for the design of scalable credibility assessment systems at both the event and the user level across various social media platforms.
Model | tweets | Acccon | Acclib | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Extra tree | 10k | 0.51 | 0.73 | ||
HAN | 10k | 0.52 | 0.73 | ||
HAN-SL | 10k | 0.54 | 0.74 |
Design issues: Computational fact checking [12] has become a trendy area of research in recent times and is known to be very beneficial in the assessment of the authenticity of a piece of information. Our methods for credibility analysis of the events can supplement these fact-checkers to no small extent. News agencies nowadays are interested in highlighting the summaries/snapshots of news items collected from social media platforms. It would be useful to automatically tag each of them with the aggregate credibility level of the posts from which the summary is generated.
One might argue that inclusion of non-textual features and, in specific, temporal features can make our predictions more accurate. However, note that one has to wait for a sufficiently long time before such longitudinal data could be accumulated. However, our method can make predictions early on time. This is possibly very important because some of the low credible events (e.g., intense hatred, entirely fake) might have the potential to wreak havoc by sparkling a communal riot or a real battle. Such forms of ‘cognitive hacking’[7] is becoming a rising concern in the online world and our work could sketch the first steps toward large scale solutions of this problem.
Our methods can also be handy in estimating levels of exaggerations in scientific and medical news items [57]. For instance, in health news, exaggerations have been widely reported that could result in serious misconceptions en masse. Such misconceptions sometimes could have very severe repercussions on the overall lifestyle of the common mass. Therefore, flagging highly exaggerated (usually low credible) news is a direct extension of our work. Since most of our framework is very generic, we believe that such extensions should be easily achievable.
7 CONCLUSIONS
In this study, we perform a detailed linguistic characterization of tweets corresponding to an event of certain credibility. We found that standard LIWC categories like ‘negate’, ‘discrep’, ‘cogmech’, ‘swear’ etc. and the Empath categories like ‘hate’, ‘deception’, ‘swearing-terms’ etc. correlate negatively with the credibility. Using
these socio-linguistic features as well as the modern deep learning machinery, we proposed models to detect the credibility of an event. We achieve an overall 26% improvement in accuracy over the best performing baseline. An exciting result that we got is even by looking at the first few tweets of an event, it is possible to make the prediction almost as accurate as in case where the entire volume of tweets is observed. Through this work we wish to show the research community that deep learning architectures augmented with sociolinguistic features are effective route to classify event credibility. Inspiring from our work one could try similar methods for various other tasks in this domain. Also one could also expriment with recent transformer based embedding to get the new state of art.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We thank Dr. Animesh Mukherjee for his valuable suggetions during the development of this work.
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